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Capital Flow

Shows how policy, balance sheets, market structure, and investor expectations transmit change across industries.

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Capital FlowMacro Insights

Strait of Hormuz Tensions Drive Up Oil and the Dollar as Markets Reprice Inflation and Rate-Hike Expectations

Three Reuters reports point to the same broad theme: an escalation in Middle East tensions, and rumors of a blockade or disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed oil prices higher, strengthened the U.S. dollar, and reignited global inflation fears as well as expectations for central bank rate hikes. None of the three sources mention any testimony schedule for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, so that background cannot be confirmed from the provided sources.

Jul 15, 2026
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TSO / High confidence
Capital FlowCorporate Strategy

SpaceX IPO and AI mega-rounds drive U.S. venture capital market to record H1 2026, but gains are highly concentrated

PitchBook says U.S. venture investment reached $412.7 billion in the first half of 2026, with AI deals absorbing the vast majority of capital; SpaceX’s $1.7 trillion IPO was the quarter’s most important exit event. Together, the sources point to a record market size driven mainly by a handful of very large transactions. Reuters’ coverage of SpaceX-related market valuations is more cautious, suggesting that some high-valuation claims leave room for greater volatility.

Jul 9, 2026
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TSO / High confidence
Capital FlowMacro Insights

U.S. Job Growth Slows Sharply in June as Markets Trim Near-Term Rate-Hike Bets

All three sources confirm that U.S. job growth slowed in June and that the prior two months’ employment data were revised down. Two of the sources explicitly say markets lowered expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. HuffPost adds that the unemployment rate fell because many people left the labor force. Taken together, the sources support the core view that the labor market cooled, rate-hike expectations eased, and markets gained more time to assess the outlook.

Jul 8, 2026
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TSO / High confidence
Capital FlowSector Deep-dive

India IT Services Q1 Preview: ICICI Securities Turns Negative on Large Caps, Mid-Caps Seen as Better Positioned

Based on three sources, ICICI Securities has cut its view on India’s large-cap IT sector from neutral to negative, citing macro headwinds, AI-driven price erosion, a shift in tech spending toward AI infrastructure, and GCC insourcing. Multiple sources point to mid-cap IT companies as relatively favored, with Coforge and Mphasis repeatedly named. Details on specific results, earnings guidance, and stock performance remain limited, and some points cannot be confirmed from the provided sources.

Jul 4, 2026
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TSO / High confidence
Capital FlowCorporate Strategy

Q2 2026 Global VC Market Rebounds: Larger Rounds Drive a Second Straight Quarter of Deal Growth, IPO Reopening Lifts Exits

PitchBook’s “Q2 2026 Global VC First Look” shows that global venture capital deal value rose for a second consecutive quarter in Q2 2026, led by larger financings; after the IPO market reopened, exit value and exit activity also recovered. At the H1 level, deals, exits, and fundraising showed a “divergent but improving” trend, though fundraising remained selective.

Jul 2, 2026
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TSO / High confidence
Capital FlowMacro Insights

BIS warns of multiple pressure points in the global economy: high debt, AI financing risks and a return of inflation

On June 28, 2026, the BIS issued its annual economic report/press release, saying the global economy faces multiple pressure points, including high public debt, financial fragilities, the sustainability and financing risks of the AI boom, and a return of inflation. Three sources consistently confirmed that the BIS raised a new “sovereign-financial stability nexus” risk; differences mainly concerned whether the Iran ceasefire context and the issue of inflation expectations becoming unanchored after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were explicitly mentioned.

Jul 1, 2026
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