Capital Flow

U.S. Job Growth Slows Sharply in June as Markets Trim Near-Term Rate-Hike Bets

All three sources confirm that U.S. job growth slowed in June and that the prior two months’ employment data were revised down. Two of the sources explicitly say markets lowered expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. HuffPost adds that the unemployment rate fell because many people left the labor force. Taken together, the sources support the core view that the labor market cooled, rate-hike expectations eased, and markets gained more time to assess the outlook.

Jul 8, 2026

BIS warns of multiple pressure points in the global economy: high debt, AI financing risks and a return of inflation

On June 28, 2026, the BIS issued its annual economic report/press release, saying the global economy faces multiple pressure points, including high public debt, financial fragilities, the sustainability and financing risks of the AI boom, and a return of inflation. Three sources consistently confirmed that the BIS raised a new “sovereign-financial stability nexus” risk; differences mainly concerned whether the Iran ceasefire context and the issue of inflation expectations becoming unanchored after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were explicitly mentioned.

Jul 1, 2026

Bank of Japan raises rates to a 31-year high, sparking attention over signals of further hikes

Three sources jointly confirm that the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1% in June 2026, the highest level in 31 years or since 1995, and signaled possible further rate increases. The shared backdrop points to energy shocks and inflationary pressure driven by the war in the Middle East. Differences remain in wording, policy tone, and some contextual details, and certain information cannot be confirmed from the provided sources.

Jun 17, 2026

PIMCO Warns of a Credit Loss Cycle: Rising Default Risk in Lower-Quality Credit, Leveraged Loans and Private Direct Lending

In its latest annual mid- and long-term outlook, PIMCO said the credit loss cycle has reemerged and expects losses in lower-quality credit, leveraged loans and private direct lending to rise significantly. Other reports also note that AI-related capital spending could widen economic divergence and hurt lower-quality borrowers. PitchBook data show U.S. direct lending activity continues to cool, with new loans over the past three months falling to the lowest level since the second quarter of 2023.

Jun 12, 2026

New York Fed May Survey: Inflation Expectations Broadly Unchanged, but Financial and Employment Concerns Rise; Markets Focus on June Policy Meeting

The New York Fed’s May Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that the U.S. public’s inflation expectations for the next year and longer horizons were broadly stable, while concerns about personal finances, employment, and uncertainty over future inflation increased. The three sources cited are closely aligned on the inflation figures: about 3.5% for one year ahead, 3.1% for three years ahead, and 3.0% for five years ahead. As for the Federal Reserve’s June 16–17 policy meeting, the provided sources do not directly confirm an official rate decision; they only show that markets broadly expect the federal funds rate to remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range, which cannot be verified from the sources given.

Jun 9, 2026