Capital Flow

Bank of Japan raises rates to a 31-year high, sparking attention over signals of further hikes

Three sources jointly confirm that the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1% in June 2026, the highest level in 31 years or since 1995, and signaled possible further rate increases. The shared backdrop points to energy shocks and inflationary pressure driven by the war in the Middle East. Differences remain in wording, policy tone, and some contextual details, and certain information cannot be confirmed from the provided sources.

Jun 17, 2026

PIMCO Warns of a Credit Loss Cycle: Rising Default Risk in Lower-Quality Credit, Leveraged Loans and Private Direct Lending

In its latest annual mid- and long-term outlook, PIMCO said the credit loss cycle has reemerged and expects losses in lower-quality credit, leveraged loans and private direct lending to rise significantly. Other reports also note that AI-related capital spending could widen economic divergence and hurt lower-quality borrowers. PitchBook data show U.S. direct lending activity continues to cool, with new loans over the past three months falling to the lowest level since the second quarter of 2023.

Jun 12, 2026

New York Fed May Survey: Inflation Expectations Broadly Unchanged, but Financial and Employment Concerns Rise; Markets Focus on June Policy Meeting

The New York Fed’s May Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that the U.S. public’s inflation expectations for the next year and longer horizons were broadly stable, while concerns about personal finances, employment, and uncertainty over future inflation increased. The three sources cited are closely aligned on the inflation figures: about 3.5% for one year ahead, 3.1% for three years ahead, and 3.0% for five years ahead. As for the Federal Reserve’s June 16–17 policy meeting, the provided sources do not directly confirm an official rate decision; they only show that markets broadly expect the federal funds rate to remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range, which cannot be verified from the sources given.

Jun 9, 2026

U.S. private credit pressure intensifies: unrealized losses at BDCs widen, PIK income stays elevated

Reuters’ analysis of 51 BDCs showed that unrealized losses in the U.S. private credit/BDC sector rose to 2.35% of net asset value in the first quarter of 2026, marking the steepest quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2022. At the same time, payment-in-kind (PIK) income remained at elevated levels, reflecting rising liquidity and refinancing pressure among borrowers. Another Reuters report said U.S. direct lending issuance and inflows slowed sharply, with incremental private credit financing falling to $44.76 billion, down markedly from the first quarter.

Jun 5, 2026

U.S. April PCE inflation rises to 3.8%: three-source cross-check confirms the Fed’s preferred gauge hit its highest level since May 2023

All three sources consistently confirm that the U.S. Commerce Department released April 2026 PCE inflation data on May 28 showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, the highest since May 2023; core PCE came in at 3.3%. The main differences are that some sources reported only the data itself, while another mentioned an inflation backdrop tied to the Iran war; however, the specific transmission mechanism and policy impact details cannot be fully confirmed from the provided sources.

Jun 4, 2026