Top Three Sources' Views and TSO Validation Conclusions: The three sources jointly confirm that the global exploration of CBDC has shifted from early discussions to actual project implementation, but there are differences in focus among parties regarding the development path. The overall conclusion is that the advancement of CBDC is multi-dimensional and global, profoundly influenced by the stage of economic development, monetary sovereignty, and the geopolitical environment.
Jointly Confirmed Facts: 146 countries and monetary unions worldwide are exploring CBDC, with 77 countries in the advanced exploration stage. Three countries (Bahamas, Jamaica, Nigeria) have fully launched CBDC. All G20 countries except the United States are exploring CBDC, with 18 in the advanced exploration stage.
Main Disagreements or Differences: Developed economies (such as Canada, Australia, Norway) tend to shelve retail CBDC, while emerging markets (such as Kenya, Central Asian countries) are increasing investment in retail CBDC to cope with stable dollar stablecoins. At the same time, there is uncertainty regarding the positioning of e-CNY.
Background and Analysis: The driving motivations for CBDC include improving financial inclusion, enhancing payment efficiency, and policy transparency. At the technological level, wholesale CBDC (such as the ECB's Project Pontes, Singapore's real-time wholesale CBDC) is the focus of institutional attention, aiming to optimize inter-institutional fund flows. At the geopolitical level, CBDC is viewed as a national security issue, potentially affecting cross-border fund tracking and sanctioning capabilities.
Summary of Three Sources' Views: The sources emphasize the dual role of CBDC in monetary sovereignty, cross-border payments, and national security. China is promoting the internationalization of a multi-polar monetary system through the upgrade of the digital RMB (e-CNY). Simultaneously, transaction volumes for cross-border wholesale CBDC projects (such as mBridge) have significantly increased after geopolitical events, highlighting its importance in international settlement.
Conclusion: The future of CBDC will be a complex process where technological innovation, regulatory refinement, and geopolitical competition interact.